Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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BTG Hotels (Group) Co., Ltd. (600258.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$81.81 - $149.22$139.84
Multi-Stage$24.12 - $26.38$25.23
Blended Fair Value$82.54
Current Price$14.68
Upside462.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.19%21.84%0.560.380.390.460.160.210.210.230.300.13
YoY Growth--48.33%-4.68%-14.43%195.12%-26.78%2.07%-7.69%-24.19%126.33%70.60%
Dividend Yield--4.19%2.49%1.69%2.01%0.57%1.59%0.88%0.94%1.61%0.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)837.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)621.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)215.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)167.56104.7362.84
Cash Retained (M)215.95215.95215.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-167.56-104.73-62.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)48.38111.22153.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,116.601,116.601,116.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.100.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.100.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.660.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$81.81$139.84$149.22
Upside / Downside457.27%852.61%916.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)837.82892.28950.281,012.051,077.831,147.891,182.33
Payout Ratio74.23%77.38%80.54%83.69%86.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)621.88690.45765.31846.99936.051,033.101,093.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)643.59649.69655.79
Year 2 PV (M)664.95677.62690.40
Year 3 PV (M)685.97705.66725.72
Year 4 PV (M)706.64733.82761.77
Year 5 PV (M)726.98762.09798.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,505.2024,640.5125,819.27
Equity Value (M)26,933.3228,169.3729,451.49
Shares Outstanding (M)1,116.601,116.601,116.60
Fair Value$24.12$25.23$26.38
Upside / Downside64.31%71.85%79.67%

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