DDM Analysis: 600230.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.84 - $3.29	$2.45
Multi-Stage	$1.95 - $2.14	$2.04
Blended Fair Value	$2.24
Current Price	$12.30
Upside	-81.76%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	2.56%	-8.97%	0.12	0.27	0.18	0.16	0.11	0.11	0.42	0.16	0.17	0.25
YoY Growth	-	-	-53.18%	50.94%	11.05%	44.66%	-0.03%	-73.49%	161.66%	-8.91%	-31.25%	-20.79%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.24%	2.40%	1.02%	1.00%	1.02%	1.34%	2.02%	0.53%	1.04%	2.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	54.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	11.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)	42.74

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	10.83	6.77	4.06
Cash Retained (M)	42.74	42.74	42.74
(-) Cash Required (M)	-10.83	-6.77	-4.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)	31.92	35.98	38.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	414.08	414.08	414.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.09	0.09
LTM Dividend per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.09	0.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.10	0.11	0.12
WACC / Discount Rate	8.85%	8.85%	8.85%
Growth Rate	2.99%	3.99%	4.99%
Fair Value	$1.84	$2.45	$3.29
Upside / Downside	-85.07%	-80.12%	-73.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	54.13	56.29	58.53	60.87	63.30	65.82	67.80
Payout Ratio	21.03%	34.82%	48.62%	62.41%	76.21%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	11.38	19.60	28.46	37.99	48.24	59.24	62.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.85%	8.85%	8.85%
Growth Rate	2.99%	3.99%	4.99%
Year 1 PV (M)	17.83	18.01	18.18
Year 2 PV (M)	23.56	24.02	24.48
Year 3 PV (M)	28.61	29.45	30.31
Year 4 PV (M)	33.05	34.36	35.70
Year 5 PV (M)	36.93	38.76	40.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)	667.91	700.97	735.33
Equity Value (M)	807.90	845.56	884.66
Shares Outstanding (M)	414.08	414.08	414.08
Fair Value	$1.95	$2.04	$2.14
Upside / Downside	-84.14%	-83.40%	-82.63%

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Cangzhou Dahua Co., Ltd. (600230.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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