Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Otani Kogyo Co.,Ltd. (5939.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,320.70 - $13,419.11$8,978.15
Multi-Stage$28,511.14 - $31,512.58$29,981.71
Blended Fair Value$19,479.93
Current Price$5,450.00
Upside257.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020
DPS-0.13%0.00%29.8929.9430.0229.9229.8330.080.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---0.15%-0.28%0.33%0.29%-0.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.55%0.42%0.27%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)282.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)259.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.5635.3521.21
Cash Retained (M)259.54259.54259.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.56-35.35-21.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)202.98224.19238.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.780.780.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share260.51287.73305.88
LTM Dividend per Share29.8429.8429.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share260.51287.73305.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend290.35317.57335.72
WACC / Discount Rate2.50%2.50%2.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6,320.70$8,978.15$13,419.11
Upside / Downside15.98%64.74%146.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)282.79279.97277.17274.39271.65268.93277.00
Payout Ratio8.22%24.58%40.93%57.29%73.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.2568.81113.45157.20200.05242.04256.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.50%2.50%2.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)66.4567.1367.81
Year 2 PV (M)105.81107.98110.17
Year 3 PV (M)141.59145.97150.43
Year 4 PV (M)174.01181.23188.66
Year 5 PV (M)203.32213.91224.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,523.8722,644.6723,811.68
Equity Value (M)22,215.0623,360.8824,553.69
Shares Outstanding (M)0.780.780.78
Fair Value$28,511.14$29,981.71$31,512.58
Upside / Downside423.14%450.12%478.21%

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