Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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GMO Payment Gateway, Inc. (3769.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10,060.93 - $51,806.56$20,480.36
Multi-Stage$5,668.27 - $6,194.19$5,926.44
Blended Fair Value$13,203.40
Current Price$9,341.00
Upside41.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.87%31.97%87.67157.6258.1149.7334.4227.7419.2813.017.796.72
YoY Growth---44.38%171.22%16.86%44.49%24.05%43.88%48.19%67.04%15.88%22.82%
Dividend Yield--1.10%1.61%0.53%0.35%0.25%0.37%0.41%0.28%0.30%0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,043.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,399.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,644.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,008.792,505.501,503.30
Cash Retained (M)10,644.5510,644.5510,644.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,008.79-2,505.50-1,503.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,635.758,139.059,141.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)76.9476.9476.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share86.24105.78118.80
LTM Dividend per Share122.16122.16122.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share86.24105.78118.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend208.40227.94240.96
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10,060.93$20,480.36$51,806.56
Upside / Downside7.71%119.25%454.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,043.9721,346.8322,734.3724,212.1025,785.8927,461.9728,285.83
Payout Ratio46.89%55.52%64.14%72.76%81.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,399.4211,850.7414,581.0117,616.1520,984.2524,715.7826,164.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,901.6411,004.9711,108.30
Year 2 PV (M)12,339.0212,574.0412,811.28
Year 3 PV (M)13,713.5614,107.2314,508.36
Year 4 PV (M)15,027.2415,605.1516,199.56
Year 5 PV (M)16,281.9617,068.3817,884.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)367,880.35385,649.11404,097.92
Equity Value (M)436,143.77456,008.88476,610.34
Shares Outstanding (M)76.9476.9476.94
Fair Value$5,668.27$5,926.44$6,194.19
Upside / Downside-39.32%-36.55%-33.69%

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