Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Grand-Tek Technology Co., Ltd. (3684.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.92 - $36.68$29.88
Multi-Stage$51.52 - $56.73$54.07
Blended Fair Value$41.98
Current Price$42.00
Upside-0.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-8.24%0.00%0.791.872.441.221.711.220.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---57.57%-23.33%100.00%-28.57%40.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.76%4.20%4.47%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)80.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)56.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.0310.026.01
Cash Retained (M)56.1656.1656.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.03-10.02-6.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.1346.1450.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.2830.2830.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.331.521.66
LTM Dividend per Share0.790.790.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.331.521.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.122.322.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$23.92$29.88$36.68
Upside / Downside-43.04%-28.86%-12.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)80.1679.3678.5777.7877.0176.2478.52
Payout Ratio29.94%41.95%53.96%65.98%77.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.0033.2942.4051.3260.0568.6172.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)30.9031.2131.53
Year 2 PV (M)36.5137.2638.02
Year 3 PV (M)41.0142.2743.57
Year 4 PV (M)44.5346.3848.28
Year 5 PV (M)47.2149.6752.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,359.891,430.711,504.44
Equity Value (M)1,560.051,637.501,718.06
Shares Outstanding (M)30.2830.2830.28
Fair Value$51.52$54.07$56.73
Upside / Downside22.66%28.75%35.08%

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