Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tsuruha Holdings Inc. (3391.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - PharmaceuticalsSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22,153.79 - $57,724.20$54,096.03
Multi-Stage$8,315.40 - $9,096.59$8,698.84
Blended Fair Value$31,397.44
Current Price$2,250.50
Upside1,295.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.27%14.97%143.62137.7899.4282.9587.5273.7373.5976.7557.8247.07
YoY Growth--4.23%38.59%19.86%-5.23%18.71%0.18%-4.11%32.74%22.83%32.22%
Dividend Yield--6.38%8.06%4.66%5.35%3.16%2.60%3.18%3.02%2.21%2.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)28,365.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14,035.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)14,330.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,673.003,545.632,127.38
Cash Retained (M)14,330.0014,330.0014,330.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,673.00-3,545.63-2,127.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,657.0010,784.3812,202.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)97.7297.7297.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share88.59110.35124.87
LTM Dividend per Share143.62143.62143.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share88.59110.35124.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend232.20253.97268.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22,153.79$54,096.03$57,724.20
Upside / Downside884.39%2,303.73%2,464.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)28,365.0030,208.7332,172.2934,263.4936,490.6238,862.5140,028.38
Payout Ratio49.48%57.58%65.69%73.79%81.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14,035.0017,395.3921,133.3325,283.7129,884.3634,976.2637,026.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)16,164.2816,317.4916,470.71
Year 2 PV (M)18,247.8718,595.4418,946.29
Year 3 PV (M)20,286.5020,868.8521,462.24
Year 4 PV (M)22,280.8723,137.7324,019.07
Year 5 PV (M)24,231.6925,402.0926,617.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)711,409.72745,771.08781,447.53
Equity Value (M)812,620.92850,092.68888,963.11
Shares Outstanding (M)97.7297.7297.72
Fair Value$8,315.40$8,698.84$9,096.59
Upside / Downside269.49%286.53%304.20%

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