Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (301662.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.98 - $77.39$49.46
Multi-Stage$145.76 - $160.97$153.21
Blended Fair Value$101.34
Current Price$129.05
Upside-21.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.340.200.070.030.030.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--65.52%203.70%124.77%9.85%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.48%0.29%0.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)125.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)87.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)38.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.1615.729.43
Cash Retained (M)38.1838.1838.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.16-15.72-9.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.0222.4528.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)69.9469.9469.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.320.41
LTM Dividend per Share1.251.251.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.320.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.441.571.66
WACC / Discount Rate2.15%2.15%2.15%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$33.98$49.46$77.39
Upside / Downside-73.67%-61.67%-40.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)125.79124.53123.29122.05120.83119.63123.21
Payout Ratio69.65%73.72%77.79%81.86%85.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)87.6191.8195.9199.91103.83107.66113.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.15%2.15%2.15%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)88.9789.8790.78
Year 2 PV (M)90.0691.9193.78
Year 3 PV (M)90.9393.7496.61
Year 4 PV (M)91.5795.3699.28
Year 5 PV (M)92.0196.80101.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,740.2410,247.4410,775.55
Equity Value (M)10,193.7810,715.1311,257.78
Shares Outstanding (M)69.9469.9469.94
Fair Value$145.76$153.21$160.97
Upside / Downside12.95%18.72%24.73%

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