Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Jialiqi Advanced Composites Technology Co., Ltd. (301586.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.52 - $41.49$25.83
Multi-Stage$12.98 - $14.15$13.56
Blended Fair Value$19.70
Current Price$54.06
Upside-63.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.030.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)64.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.868.034.82
Cash Retained (M)24.8624.8624.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.86-8.03-4.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.0116.8320.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)77.8177.8177.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.220.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.220.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.660.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.52$25.83$41.49
Upside / Downside-67.59%-52.21%-23.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)64.2868.4572.9077.6482.6988.0690.70
Payout Ratio61.32%67.05%72.79%78.53%84.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.4145.9053.0760.9769.6879.2683.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)41.5341.9342.32
Year 2 PV (M)43.4544.2745.11
Year 3 PV (M)45.1746.4647.78
Year 4 PV (M)46.7048.5050.35
Year 5 PV (M)48.0750.3952.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)785.33823.27862.65
Equity Value (M)1,010.251,054.821,101.01
Shares Outstanding (M)77.8177.8177.81
Fair Value$12.98$13.56$14.15
Upside / Downside-75.98%-74.92%-73.82%

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