Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Guangdong Huicheng Vacuum Technology Co., Ltd. (301392.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.00 - $55.13$36.91
Multi-Stage$19.08 - $20.84$19.95
Blended Fair Value$28.43
Current Price$119.21
Upside-76.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS15.51%0.00%0.350.070.120.280.120.170.080.000.000.00
YoY Growth--403.13%-43.01%-56.20%140.47%-31.90%126.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.57%0.07%0.12%0.27%0.11%0.16%0.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)115.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)90.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.0514.408.64
Cash Retained (M)90.0890.0890.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.05-14.40-8.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)67.0475.6881.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)83.1283.1283.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.810.910.98
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.810.910.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.111.211.28
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26.00$36.91$55.13
Upside / Downside-78.19%-69.04%-53.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)115.24122.73130.71139.20148.25157.89162.62
Payout Ratio21.83%35.46%49.10%62.73%76.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.1543.5264.1787.32113.21142.10150.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)39.1939.5739.94
Year 2 PV (M)52.0453.0454.04
Year 3 PV (M)63.7865.6167.47
Year 4 PV (M)74.4677.3280.27
Year 5 PV (M)84.1688.2392.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,272.721,334.201,398.02
Equity Value (M)1,586.361,657.961,732.19
Shares Outstanding (M)83.1283.1283.12
Fair Value$19.08$19.95$20.84
Upside / Downside-83.99%-83.27%-82.52%

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