Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

MH Robot & Automation Co., Ltd. (301199.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.41 - $9.50$7.89
Multi-Stage$11.56 - $12.73$12.14
Blended Fair Value$10.01
Current Price$27.42
Upside-63.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.060.060.070.000.000.000.000.010.040.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-12.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-82.55%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.27%0.38%0.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)117.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)104.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.5114.698.82
Cash Retained (M)104.21104.21104.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.51-14.69-8.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)80.7089.5295.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)146.68146.68146.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.610.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.610.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.700.74
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.41$7.89$9.50
Upside / Downside-76.62%-71.23%-65.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)117.54116.37115.20114.05112.91111.78115.13
Payout Ratio11.34%27.08%42.81%58.54%74.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.3331.5149.3166.7683.86100.60106.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)28.9329.2329.52
Year 2 PV (M)41.5842.4443.30
Year 3 PV (M)51.7053.2954.93
Year 4 PV (M)59.6362.1064.64
Year 5 PV (M)65.6969.1172.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,448.731,524.171,602.72
Equity Value (M)1,696.251,780.331,867.78
Shares Outstanding (M)146.68146.68146.68
Fair Value$11.56$12.14$12.73
Upside / Downside-57.83%-55.74%-53.56%

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