Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shandong Longhua New Material Co., Ltd. (301149.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.59 - $61.96$58.06
Multi-Stage$11.08 - $12.13$11.60
Blended Fair Value$34.83
Current Price$10.78
Upside223.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS118.25%0.00%0.270.110.100.010.000.010.010.010.010.04
YoY Growth--140.95%12.00%1,361.72%0.00%-100.00%-46.54%68.47%-56.59%-62.89%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.44%0.96%0.91%0.04%0.00%0.02%0.04%0.02%0.06%0.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)135.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)87.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.0016.8810.13
Cash Retained (M)87.8787.8787.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.00-16.88-10.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)60.8771.0077.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)433.34433.34433.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate5.90%5.90%5.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$52.59$58.06$61.96
Upside / Downside387.83%438.63%474.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)135.00143.78153.12163.08173.68184.97190.52
Payout Ratio34.91%45.93%56.95%67.96%78.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.1366.0487.20110.83137.17166.47176.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.90%5.90%5.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)61.7762.3662.94
Year 2 PV (M)76.3077.7579.22
Year 3 PV (M)90.7193.3295.97
Year 4 PV (M)105.02109.06113.21
Year 5 PV (M)119.21124.97130.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,348.074,558.084,776.13
Equity Value (M)4,801.085,025.535,258.42
Shares Outstanding (M)433.34433.34433.34
Fair Value$11.08$11.60$12.13
Upside / Downside2.78%7.58%12.57%

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