Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yantai Ishikawa Sealing Technology Co.,Ltd. (301020.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.04 - $118.05$110.61
Multi-Stage$27.69 - $30.41$29.03
Blended Fair Value$69.82
Current Price$22.75
Upside206.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.73%19.52%0.350.180.270.000.220.330.080.090.020.36
YoY Growth--94.44%-33.33%0.00%-100.00%-33.33%317.82%-12.47%278.77%-93.32%520.08%
Dividend Yield--1.61%0.91%1.28%0.00%0.67%1.00%0.24%0.27%0.07%1.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)89.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)65.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.8311.146.69
Cash Retained (M)65.7365.7365.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.83-11.14-6.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)47.9054.5859.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)147.67147.67147.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.370.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.370.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate5.08%5.08%5.08%
Growth Rate3.69%4.69%5.69%
Fair Value$36.04$110.61$118.05
Upside / Downside58.42%386.20%418.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)89.1593.3397.72102.30107.10112.13115.49
Payout Ratio26.27%39.02%51.76%64.51%77.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.4236.4250.5865.9982.74100.92106.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.08%5.08%5.08%
Growth Rate3.69%4.69%5.69%
Year 1 PV (M)34.3334.6634.99
Year 2 PV (M)44.9445.8146.69
Year 3 PV (M)55.2656.8758.52
Year 4 PV (M)65.3067.8670.49
Year 5 PV (M)75.0778.7682.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,814.614,002.134,196.95
Equity Value (M)4,089.504,286.084,490.23
Shares Outstanding (M)147.67147.67147.67
Fair Value$27.69$29.03$30.41
Upside / Downside21.73%27.58%33.66%

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