Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NCS Testing Technology Co., Ltd. (300797.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.88 - $4.12$3.49
Multi-Stage$4.36 - $4.80$4.58
Blended Fair Value$4.03
Current Price$16.88
Upside-76.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.100.090.070.020.020.000.010.370.020.02
YoY Growth--12.43%35.17%218.66%14.29%0.00%-100.00%-97.10%2,282.46%-13.89%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.75%0.80%0.57%0.22%0.18%0.00%0.17%5.77%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)158.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)157.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.6219.7611.86
Cash Retained (M)157.03157.03157.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.62-19.76-11.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)125.41137.27145.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)377.37377.37377.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.360.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.360.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate9.40%9.40%9.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.88$3.49$4.12
Upside / Downside-82.94%-79.34%-75.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)158.09156.51154.94153.39151.86150.34154.85
Payout Ratio0.67%18.54%36.40%54.27%72.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.0629.0156.4083.24109.54135.31143.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.40%9.40%9.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)26.2526.5226.78
Year 2 PV (M)46.1847.1248.08
Year 3 PV (M)61.6663.5765.52
Year 4 PV (M)73.4276.4679.60
Year 5 PV (M)82.0586.3390.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,356.331,426.961,500.49
Equity Value (M)1,645.891,726.951,811.25
Shares Outstanding (M)377.37377.37377.37
Fair Value$4.36$4.58$4.80
Upside / Downside-74.16%-72.89%-71.57%

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