Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Senba Sensing Technology Co.,Ltd. (300701.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.98 - $48.28$45.24
Multi-Stage$33.64 - $36.92$35.25
Blended Fair Value$40.25
Current Price$12.74
Upside215.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.28%15.73%0.100.000.110.230.100.080.110.120.080.07
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-50.20%140.03%24.99%-33.33%-1.05%51.60%1.62%228.02%
Dividend Yield--0.94%0.00%1.16%2.35%0.76%0.59%0.99%0.89%1.36%1.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)63.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.777.984.79
Cash Retained (M)34.8634.8634.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.77-7.98-4.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.0926.8830.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)263.07263.07263.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate-1.47%-1.47%-1.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$40.98$45.24$48.28
Upside / Downside221.64%255.13%278.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)63.8668.0172.4377.1482.1687.5090.12
Payout Ratio45.41%54.33%63.25%72.17%81.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.0036.9545.8155.6766.6278.7583.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.47%-1.47%-1.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)37.1537.5037.85
Year 2 PV (M)46.3047.1948.08
Year 3 PV (M)56.5758.1959.85
Year 4 PV (M)68.0570.6773.36
Year 5 PV (M)80.8784.7888.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,561.378,974.889,404.23
Equity Value (M)8,850.319,273.219,712.20
Shares Outstanding (M)263.07263.07263.07
Fair Value$33.64$35.25$36.92
Upside / Downside164.07%176.68%189.78%

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