Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Wanma Technology Co., Ltd. (300698.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.08 - $23.74$12.73
Multi-Stage$5.28 - $5.77$5.52
Blended Fair Value$9.13
Current Price$48.22
Upside-81.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS52.99%14.48%0.260.030.030.040.030.030.070.010.020.13
YoY Growth--768.37%-9.26%-17.43%56.39%-17.63%-52.94%537.89%-39.54%-86.42%87.12%
Dividend Yield--0.68%0.09%0.12%0.22%0.17%0.15%0.37%0.04%0.20%1.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)42.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)39.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.555.353.21
Cash Retained (M)39.5139.5139.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.55-5.35-3.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.9634.1636.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)133.88133.88133.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.260.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.260.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate8.84%8.84%8.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.08$12.73$23.74
Upside / Downside-83.25%-73.59%-50.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)42.7745.5548.5151.6655.0258.5960.35
Payout Ratio7.61%24.09%40.57%57.05%73.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.2610.9719.6829.4740.4552.7355.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.84%8.84%8.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)9.9910.0810.18
Year 2 PV (M)16.3016.6116.93
Year 3 PV (M)22.2222.8623.51
Year 4 PV (M)27.7628.8329.93
Year 5 PV (M)32.9434.5336.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)597.31626.16656.12
Equity Value (M)706.52739.07772.83
Shares Outstanding (M)133.88133.88133.88
Fair Value$5.28$5.52$5.77
Upside / Downside-89.06%-88.55%-88.03%

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