Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.,Ltd. (300618.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.33 - $30.63$21.29
Multi-Stage$11.60 - $12.66$12.12
Blended Fair Value$16.71
Current Price$56.08
Upside-70.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-18.31%13.13%0.250.270.650.310.100.690.490.020.050.06
YoY Growth---4.89%-59.34%111.14%217.08%-85.94%41.33%2,071.05%-55.46%-17.82%-15.97%
Dividend Yield--0.70%0.92%1.55%0.49%0.15%1.51%0.79%0.02%0.11%0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)272.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)197.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.5634.1020.46
Cash Retained (M)197.50197.50197.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.56-34.10-20.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)142.94163.40177.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)308.24308.24308.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.530.57
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.530.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.710.770.82
WACC / Discount Rate10.37%10.37%10.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.33$21.29$30.63
Upside / Downside-72.67%-62.03%-45.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)272.78290.51309.40329.51350.93373.74384.95
Payout Ratio27.60%40.08%52.56%65.04%77.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.28116.43162.62214.31272.04336.36356.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.37%10.37%10.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)104.50105.49106.48
Year 2 PV (M)130.99133.49136.00
Year 3 PV (M)154.94159.39163.92
Year 4 PV (M)176.52183.31190.29
Year 5 PV (M)195.89205.35215.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,812.532,948.383,089.42
Equity Value (M)3,575.363,735.393,901.29
Shares Outstanding (M)308.24308.24308.24
Fair Value$11.60$12.12$12.66
Upside / Downside-79.32%-78.39%-77.43%

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