Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Forms Syntron Information Co., Ltd. (300468.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.55 - $2.44$1.96
Multi-Stage$2.47 - $2.71$2.59
Blended Fair Value$2.27
Current Price$38.08
Upside-94.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.06%-1.62%0.060.060.050.060.050.050.050.050.030.07
YoY Growth--0.00%12.39%-3.40%4.32%-2.21%8.49%4.04%69.79%-60.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.39%0.65%0.43%0.39%0.48%0.47%0.65%0.56%0.24%0.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)81.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.3510.226.13
Cash Retained (M)28.6728.6728.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.35-10.22-6.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.3218.4522.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)527.57527.57527.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.140.14
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate0.06%1.06%2.06%
Fair Value$1.55$1.96$2.44
Upside / Downside-95.93%-94.86%-93.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)81.7382.6083.4884.3785.2786.1888.76
Payout Ratio64.92%69.94%74.95%79.97%84.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.0657.7762.5767.4772.4677.5682.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate0.06%1.06%2.06%
Year 1 PV (M)52.9353.4653.99
Year 2 PV (M)52.5353.5854.65
Year 3 PV (M)51.8953.4655.07
Year 4 PV (M)51.0653.1355.27
Year 5 PV (M)50.0752.6255.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,046.361,099.701,155.20
Equity Value (M)1,304.851,365.971,429.45
Shares Outstanding (M)527.57527.57527.57
Fair Value$2.47$2.59$2.71
Upside / Downside-93.50%-93.20%-92.88%

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