Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co., Ltd. (300409.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.79 - $122.62$114.92
Multi-Stage$18.40 - $20.13$19.25
Blended Fair Value$67.08
Current Price$25.40
Upside164.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.20%30.77%0.500.230.180.120.160.220.190.080.040.05
YoY Growth--118.94%28.47%50.05%-25.51%-29.66%18.12%140.35%86.68%-22.15%60.29%
Dividend Yield--3.17%2.23%1.15%0.58%1.22%2.13%0.94%0.27%0.22%0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)425.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)247.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)177.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)85.0453.1531.89
Cash Retained (M)177.85177.85177.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-85.04-53.15-31.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)92.81124.70145.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)689.62689.62689.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$52.79$114.92$122.62
Upside / Downside107.82%352.43%382.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)425.21452.85482.29513.64547.02582.58600.06
Payout Ratio58.17%64.54%70.90%77.27%83.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)247.36292.27341.96396.89457.50524.32555.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)271.89274.47277.04
Year 2 PV (M)295.94301.57307.26
Year 3 PV (M)319.52328.69338.04
Year 4 PV (M)342.64355.82369.37
Year 5 PV (M)365.30382.95401.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,093.7611,629.5912,185.93
Equity Value (M)12,689.0513,273.0913,878.91
Shares Outstanding (M)689.62689.62689.62
Fair Value$18.40$19.25$20.13
Upside / Downside-27.56%-24.22%-20.77%

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