Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co., Ltd. (300285.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$71.24 - $123.46$115.70
Multi-Stage$19.67 - $21.53$20.58
Blended Fair Value$68.14
Current Price$22.32
Upside205.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.52%20.13%0.120.120.120.110.070.090.070.030.040.02
YoY Growth--1.79%-2.80%10.41%61.22%-25.72%39.10%117.02%-17.47%107.65%-7.54%
Dividend Yield--0.64%0.66%0.43%0.32%0.16%0.44%0.41%0.22%0.28%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)612.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)187.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)424.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)122.4176.5045.90
Cash Retained (M)424.57424.57424.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-122.41-76.50-45.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)302.16348.06378.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)985.89985.89985.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.350.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.350.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.24%6.24%6.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$71.24$115.70$123.46
Upside / Downside219.19%418.37%453.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)612.03651.81694.18739.30787.36838.53863.69
Payout Ratio30.63%42.50%54.38%66.25%78.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)187.46277.05377.48489.80615.13754.68798.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.24%6.24%6.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)258.34260.78263.23
Year 2 PV (M)328.22334.47340.78
Year 3 PV (M)397.12408.52420.13
Year 4 PV (M)465.05482.94501.33
Year 5 PV (M)532.02557.72584.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,407.4718,248.2519,121.22
Equity Value (M)19,388.2120,292.6821,231.10
Shares Outstanding (M)985.89985.89985.89
Fair Value$19.67$20.58$21.53
Upside / Downside-11.89%-7.78%-3.52%

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