Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Longhua Technology Group Co.,Ltd. (300263.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.24 - $34.86$32.67
Multi-Stage$5.16 - $5.64$5.40
Blended Fair Value$19.03
Current Price$8.20
Upside132.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.73%6.53%0.060.030.040.030.020.020.010.010.020.02
YoY Growth--114.69%-15.28%16.61%49.82%-1.11%107.46%0.00%-49.96%18.47%-51.26%
Dividend Yield--0.84%0.46%0.45%0.37%0.31%0.32%0.15%0.16%0.29%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)156.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)95.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)60.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.3619.6011.76
Cash Retained (M)60.9460.9460.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.36-19.60-11.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.5841.3449.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)894.36894.36894.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.24$32.67$34.86
Upside / Downside73.64%298.42%325.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)156.78166.97177.82189.38201.69214.80221.24
Payout Ratio61.13%66.91%72.68%78.45%84.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)95.84111.71129.24148.57169.87193.32204.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)103.87104.85105.84
Year 2 PV (M)111.73113.86116.01
Year 3 PV (M)119.43122.86126.35
Year 4 PV (M)126.97131.85136.88
Year 5 PV (M)134.35140.84147.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,018.724,212.834,414.36
Equity Value (M)4,615.074,827.095,047.01
Shares Outstanding (M)894.36894.36894.36
Fair Value$5.16$5.40$5.64
Upside / Downside-37.07%-34.18%-31.18%

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