Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ShanXi C&Y Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (300254.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.57 - $3.49$2.27
Multi-Stage$3.72 - $4.10$3.91
Blended Fair Value$3.09
Current Price$10.58
Upside-70.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.22%-0.82%0.050.050.050.060.080.020.040.040.040.05
YoY Growth---7.45%11.85%-18.88%-29.53%399.80%-60.00%0.00%20.00%-35.13%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.52%0.50%0.73%0.61%1.48%0.23%0.48%0.43%0.19%0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.072.551.53
Cash Retained (M)6.876.876.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.07-2.55-1.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.804.335.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)245.21245.21245.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate4.88%4.88%4.88%
Growth Rate0.62%1.62%2.62%
Fair Value$1.57$2.27$3.49
Upside / Downside-85.15%-78.56%-66.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20.3620.6921.0321.3721.7222.0722.73
Payout Ratio66.26%71.00%75.75%80.50%85.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.4914.6915.9317.2018.5119.8621.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.88%4.88%4.88%
Growth Rate0.62%1.62%2.62%
Year 1 PV (M)13.8714.0114.15
Year 2 PV (M)14.2014.4814.77
Year 3 PV (M)14.4814.9115.36
Year 4 PV (M)14.7115.3015.91
Year 5 PV (M)14.9015.6516.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)840.77883.39927.72
Equity Value (M)912.93957.761,004.35
Shares Outstanding (M)245.21245.21245.21
Fair Value$3.72$3.91$4.10
Upside / Downside-64.81%-63.08%-61.29%

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