Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Cooltech Power Co., Ltd. (300153.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.08 - $1.57$1.32
Multi-Stage$1.66 - $1.83$1.74
Blended Fair Value$1.53
Current Price$40.29
Upside-96.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-28.33%-11.53%0.010.020.030.020.030.080.110.110.120.07
YoY Growth---26.51%-21.10%13.90%-25.85%-61.39%-32.04%4.16%-5.53%54.93%50.00%
Dividend Yield--0.04%0.30%0.32%0.25%0.57%1.42%1.32%1.08%0.76%0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)48.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)45.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.636.023.61
Cash Retained (M)45.4345.4345.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.63-6.02-3.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.8039.4141.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)320.01320.01320.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate9.18%9.18%9.18%
Growth Rate-1.72%-0.72%0.28%
Fair Value$1.08$1.32$1.57
Upside / Downside-97.31%-96.72%-96.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)48.1447.7947.4547.1146.7746.4447.83
Payout Ratio5.63%22.51%39.38%56.25%73.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.7110.7618.6926.5034.2041.7944.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.18%9.18%9.18%
Growth Rate-1.72%-0.72%0.28%
Year 1 PV (M)9.759.859.95
Year 2 PV (M)15.3615.6715.99
Year 3 PV (M)19.7520.3620.98
Year 4 PV (M)23.1124.0725.05
Year 5 PV (M)25.6026.9328.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)438.26461.01484.70
Equity Value (M)531.84557.90584.99
Shares Outstanding (M)320.01320.01320.01
Fair Value$1.66$1.74$1.83
Upside / Downside-95.88%-95.67%-95.46%

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