Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Changhong Technology Co., Ltd. (300151.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.29 - $25.08$23.51
Multi-Stage$17.17 - $18.84$17.99
Blended Fair Value$20.75
Current Price$12.96
Upside60.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.16%18.88%0.130.200.180.180.000.060.030.030.030.03
YoY Growth---33.86%13.48%-4.09%0.00%-100.00%100.00%-5.22%-6.56%23.66%7.19%
Dividend Yield--0.88%1.26%0.86%0.84%0.00%0.75%0.41%0.38%0.26%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)69.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.808.635.18
Cash Retained (M)16.8616.8616.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.80-8.63-5.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.068.2311.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)547.19547.19547.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate-1.01%-1.01%-1.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$21.29$23.51$25.08
Upside / Downside64.28%81.38%93.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)69.0273.5078.2883.3788.7994.5697.40
Payout Ratio75.57%78.46%81.34%84.23%87.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.1557.6763.6770.2277.3585.1090.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.01%-1.01%-1.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)57.7158.2558.80
Year 2 PV (M)63.7664.9866.20
Year 3 PV (M)70.3672.3874.44
Year 4 PV (M)77.5680.5483.61
Year 5 PV (M)85.4089.5293.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,040.139,476.779,930.13
Equity Value (M)9,394.929,842.4510,306.98
Shares Outstanding (M)547.19547.19547.19
Fair Value$17.17$17.99$18.84
Upside / Downside32.48%38.79%45.34%

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