Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

YLZ Information Technology Co., Ltd (300096.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.47 - $0.61$0.54
Multi-Stage$0.87 - $0.97$0.92
Blended Fair Value$0.73
Current Price$7.38
Upside-90.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-41.09%-37.55%0.000.010.020.010.010.010.010.010.010.01
YoY Growth---95.35%-59.47%276.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-87.29%
Dividend Yield--0.01%0.16%0.25%0.06%0.07%0.05%0.04%0.04%0.04%0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)62.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)55.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.537.834.70
Cash Retained (M)55.2355.2355.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.53-7.83-4.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.7047.4050.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)429.87429.87429.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.13
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate-12.06%-11.06%-10.06%
Fair Value$0.47$0.54$0.61
Upside / Downside-93.65%-92.64%-91.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)62.6555.7349.5644.0839.2134.8735.92
Payout Ratio11.84%27.47%43.11%58.74%74.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.4215.3121.3625.8929.1631.3933.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate-12.06%-11.06%-10.06%
Year 1 PV (M)13.7813.9414.10
Year 2 PV (M)17.3217.7218.12
Year 3 PV (M)18.9019.5520.22
Year 4 PV (M)19.1620.0520.96
Year 5 PV (M)18.5719.6520.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)288.32305.09322.63
Equity Value (M)376.05395.99416.81
Shares Outstanding (M)429.87429.87429.87
Fair Value$0.87$0.92$0.97
Upside / Downside-88.15%-87.52%-86.86%

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