Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Wuxi Boton Technology Co., Ltd. (300031.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.17 - $34.60$17.87
Multi-Stage$9.66 - $10.59$10.12
Blended Fair Value$13.99
Current Price$24.61
Upside-43.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.18%0.07%0.110.060.170.370.290.050.140.110.000.00
YoY Growth--87.26%-65.43%-54.22%27.25%437.38%-62.46%29.89%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.40%0.39%0.81%1.83%1.79%0.29%0.91%0.77%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)181.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)160.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.2122.6313.58
Cash Retained (M)160.47160.47160.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.21-22.63-13.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)124.26137.84146.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)417.68417.68417.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.330.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.330.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate7.16%7.16%7.16%
Growth Rate3.93%4.93%5.93%
Fair Value$11.17$17.87$34.60
Upside / Downside-54.63%-27.41%40.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)181.03189.96199.32209.15219.46230.28237.19
Payout Ratio11.36%27.09%42.82%58.54%74.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.5651.4585.34122.44163.00207.25219.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.16%7.16%7.16%
Growth Rate3.93%4.93%5.93%
Year 1 PV (M)47.5648.0248.47
Year 2 PV (M)72.9174.3275.74
Year 3 PV (M)96.6999.51102.38
Year 4 PV (M)118.98123.62128.40
Year 5 PV (M)139.83146.69153.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,560.283,734.893,916.29
Equity Value (M)4,036.254,227.054,425.10
Shares Outstanding (M)417.68417.68417.68
Fair Value$9.66$10.12$10.59
Upside / Downside-60.73%-58.88%-56.95%

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