Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hanjin Kal (180640.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45,611.35 - $64,706.74$55,024.92
Multi-Stage$41,346.74 - $45,085.58$43,182.60
Blended Fair Value$49,103.76
Current Price$118,200.00
Upside-58.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.69%17.47%353.63224.2535.6335.63227.90268.09111.8285.65158.31132.10
YoY Growth--57.70%529.32%0.00%-84.36%-14.99%139.75%30.56%-45.90%19.84%86.89%
Dividend Yield--0.44%0.36%0.08%0.06%0.40%0.36%0.44%0.41%0.81%0.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)434,392.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24,080.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)410,312.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)86,878.4854,299.0532,579.43
Cash Retained (M)410,312.23410,312.23410,312.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-86,878.48-54,299.05-32,579.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)323,433.75356,013.18377,732.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)66.8666.8666.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share4,837.685,324.975,649.84
LTM Dividend per Share360.17360.17360.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share4,837.685,324.975,649.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend5,197.855,685.156,010.01
WACC / Discount Rate15.51%15.51%15.51%
Growth Rate3.69%4.69%5.69%
Fair Value$45,611.35$55,024.92$64,706.74
Upside / Downside-61.41%-53.45%-45.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)434,392.40454,786.91476,138.94498,493.44521,897.47546,400.31562,792.32
Payout Ratio5.54%22.43%39.33%56.22%73.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24,080.17102,030.22187,246.63280,239.88381,552.37491,760.28520,582.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate15.51%15.51%15.51%
Growth Rate3.69%4.69%5.69%
Year 1 PV (M)87,485.0188,328.6989,172.37
Year 2 PV (M)137,665.04140,333.04143,026.64
Year 3 PV (M)176,662.53181,823.00187,083.00
Year 4 PV (M)206,240.28214,311.75222,617.86
Year 5 PV (M)227,917.47239,121.29250,761.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,928,359.012,023,152.062,121,636.83
Equity Value (M)2,764,329.332,887,069.833,014,298.14
Shares Outstanding (M)66.8666.8666.86
Fair Value$41,346.74$43,182.60$45,085.58
Upside / Downside-65.02%-63.47%-61.86%

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