Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ausnutria Dairy Corporation Ltd (1717.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.76 - $2.78$2.23
Multi-Stage$3.90 - $4.30$4.10
Blended Fair Value$3.16
Current Price$1.87
Upside69.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-17.26%0.39%0.050.060.240.220.180.120.060.030.020.00
YoY Growth---18.10%-77.11%10.82%20.39%55.09%94.44%98.52%60.36%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.57%2.34%6.52%2.83%1.65%1.16%0.78%0.78%0.68%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)315.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)81.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)234.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)63.2039.5023.70
Cash Retained (M)234.67234.67234.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-63.20-39.50-23.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)171.47195.17210.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,783.271,783.271,783.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-1.61%-0.61%0.39%
Fair Value$1.76$2.23$2.78
Upside / Downside-5.88%19.02%48.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)315.99314.05312.12310.20308.30306.41315.60
Payout Ratio25.74%38.59%51.44%64.29%77.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)81.32121.19160.56199.44237.84275.77291.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-1.61%-0.61%0.39%
Year 1 PV (M)112.85113.99115.14
Year 2 PV (M)139.22142.06144.94
Year 3 PV (M)161.04166.00171.06
Year 4 PV (M)178.83186.21193.82
Year 5 PV (M)193.07203.08213.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,175.136,495.396,828.81
Equity Value (M)6,960.137,306.747,667.27
Shares Outstanding (M)1,783.271,783.271,783.27
Fair Value$3.90$4.10$4.30
Upside / Downside108.72%119.11%129.92%

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