Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ruichang Intl (1334.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.28 - $0.43$0.35
Multi-Stage$0.63 - $0.70$0.66
Blended Fair Value$0.51
Current Price$1.02
Upside-50.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.020.000.000.040.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.54%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)3.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.631.640.99
Cash Retained (M)3.043.043.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.63-1.64-0.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.411.402.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)436.13436.13436.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.030.03
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.28$0.35$0.43
Upside / Downside-72.87%-66.05%-58.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.1513.0112.8812.7612.6312.5012.88
Payout Ratio76.84%79.48%82.11%84.74%87.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.1010.3410.5810.8111.0311.2511.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)9.619.719.81
Year 2 PV (M)9.139.329.51
Year 3 PV (M)8.678.949.21
Year 4 PV (M)8.228.568.91
Year 5 PV (M)7.798.208.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)233.04245.17257.81
Equity Value (M)276.46289.90303.87
Shares Outstanding (M)436.13436.13436.13
Fair Value$0.63$0.66$0.70
Upside / Downside-37.85%-34.83%-31.69%

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