Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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AIA Group Limited (1299.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.70 - $19.54$15.15
Multi-Stage$16.77 - $18.38$17.56
Blended Fair Value$16.36
Current Price$8.97
Upside82.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.31%12.79%0.210.210.210.200.180.180.130.130.100.08
YoY Growth--0.91%1.45%4.78%8.64%1.01%35.13%5.52%22.36%36.54%18.86%
Dividend Yield--2.91%2.49%1.86%1.95%1.48%1.71%1.60%1.55%1.68%1.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,884.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,717.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,167.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,176.801,360.50816.30
Cash Retained (M)6,167.006,167.006,167.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,176.80-1,360.50-816.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,990.204,806.505,350.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,057.7511,057.7511,057.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.430.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.430.430.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.430.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.790.860.91
WACC / Discount Rate7.86%7.86%7.86%
Growth Rate1.06%2.06%3.06%
Fair Value$11.70$15.15$19.54
Upside / Downside30.44%68.92%117.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,884.0011,108.5711,337.7811,571.7111,810.4812,054.1712,415.79
Payout Ratio43.34%52.67%62.00%71.34%80.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,717.005,851.007,029.808,254.749,527.2510,848.7511,484.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.86%7.86%7.86%
Growth Rate1.06%2.06%3.06%
Year 1 PV (M)5,371.255,424.395,477.54
Year 2 PV (M)5,924.236,042.056,161.03
Year 3 PV (M)6,386.136,577.586,772.82
Year 4 PV (M)6,766.227,038.027,317.93
Year 5 PV (M)7,072.997,429.917,801.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)153,916.95161,684.02169,761.53
Equity Value (M)185,437.76194,195.97203,291.95
Shares Outstanding (M)11,057.7511,057.7511,057.75
Fair Value$16.77$17.56$18.38
Upside / Downside86.96%95.79%104.96%

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