Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Formosa Oilseed Processing Co., Ltd. (1225.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.29 - $53.62$35.90
Multi-Stage$35.22 - $38.72$36.94
Blended Fair Value$36.42
Current Price$29.70
Upside22.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.03%20.37%1.321.351.441.261.171.031.121.120.900.22
YoY Growth---2.00%-6.25%14.29%7.69%13.04%-8.00%0.00%25.00%300.00%8.57%
Dividend Yield--4.09%2.53%2.70%2.38%2.40%3.58%1.83%1.71%1.99%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)340.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)340.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.0442.5325.52
Cash Retained (M)340.21340.21340.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.04-42.53-25.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)272.16297.68314.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)243.16243.16243.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.121.221.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.121.221.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.121.221.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate1.85%2.85%3.85%
Fair Value$25.29$35.90$53.62
Upside / Downside-14.83%20.89%80.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)340.21349.90359.86370.12380.66391.50403.25
Payout Ratio0.00%18.00%36.00%54.00%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.0062.98129.55199.86274.07352.35373.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate1.85%2.85%3.85%
Year 1 PV (M)58.6459.2259.79
Year 2 PV (M)112.32114.53116.77
Year 3 PV (M)161.33166.13171.03
Year 4 PV (M)206.00214.21222.66
Year 5 PV (M)246.58258.93271.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,779.858,169.368,574.31
Equity Value (M)8,564.728,982.379,416.32
Shares Outstanding (M)243.16243.16243.16
Fair Value$35.22$36.94$38.72
Upside / Downside18.59%24.38%30.39%

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