Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Alcon Inc. (0A0D.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.05 - $24.93$20.85
Multi-Stage$28.94 - $31.84$30.36
Blended Fair Value$25.61
Current Price$81.06
Upside-68.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.260.230.200.110.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--12.07%16.00%85.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.32%0.29%0.28%0.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,120.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)130.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)990.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)224.00140.0084.00
Cash Retained (M)990.00990.00990.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-224.00-140.00-84.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)766.00850.00906.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)497.70497.70497.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.541.711.82
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.541.711.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.801.972.08
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$17.05$20.85$24.93
Upside / Downside-78.97%-74.28%-69.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,120.001,108.801,097.711,086.731,075.871,065.111,097.06
Payout Ratio11.61%27.29%42.96%58.64%74.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)130.00302.54471.62637.29799.60958.601,014.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)276.41279.23282.05
Year 2 PV (M)393.67401.75409.90
Year 3 PV (M)486.01501.04516.38
Year 4 PV (M)557.12580.21604.01
Year 5 PV (M)610.21641.99675.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,078.0212,706.9513,361.81
Equity Value (M)14,401.4415,111.1615,849.22
Shares Outstanding (M)497.70497.70497.70
Fair Value$28.94$30.36$31.84
Upside / Downside-64.30%-62.54%-60.71%

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