Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SFA Engineering Corporation (056190.KQ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,258.88 - $5,990.54$5,118.43
Multi-Stage$11,986.83 - $13,233.24$12,597.34
Blended Fair Value$8,857.89
Current Price$23,750.00
Upside-62.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-22.42%-3.92%406.93824.711,833.671,154.231,197.291,447.621,512.65661.26237.35384.95
YoY Growth---50.66%-55.02%58.87%-3.60%-17.29%-4.30%128.75%178.61%-38.34%-36.59%
Dividend Yield--1.92%3.10%4.67%2.81%2.95%4.63%3.45%1.91%0.66%1.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,838.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10,804.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,034.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,167.792,604.871,562.92
Cash Retained (M)10,034.0910,034.0910,034.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,167.79-2,604.87-1,562.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,866.307,429.228,471.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)29.5629.5629.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share198.49251.37286.62
LTM Dividend per Share365.59365.59365.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share198.49251.37286.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend564.07616.95652.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-5.92%-4.92%-3.92%
Fair Value$4,258.88$5,118.43$5,990.54
Upside / Downside-82.07%-78.45%-74.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,838.9519,813.4618,838.4317,911.3917,029.9616,191.9116,677.67
Payout Ratio51.85%59.48%67.11%74.74%82.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10,804.8711,784.9512,642.4013,386.9314,027.5614,572.7215,426.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-5.92%-4.92%-3.92%
Year 1 PV (M)10,945.2511,061.5911,177.93
Year 2 PV (M)10,904.9911,138.0511,373.57
Year 3 PV (M)10,724.4411,070.0711,423.05
Year 4 PV (M)10,436.9510,887.8311,353.16
Year 5 PV (M)10,070.0210,616.7111,186.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)301,189.00317,540.17334,593.91
Equity Value (M)354,270.65372,314.42391,108.50
Shares Outstanding (M)29.5629.5629.56
Fair Value$11,986.83$12,597.34$13,233.24
Upside / Downside-49.53%-46.96%-44.28%

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