Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Minth Group Limited (0425.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$317.96 - $798.54$748.35
Multi-Stage$114.10 - $125.00$119.45
Blended Fair Value$433.90
Current Price$20.43
Upside2,023.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.520.540.480.600.580.690.590.450.39
YoY Growth---100.00%-2.12%11.90%-20.78%4.05%-16.03%17.57%29.90%15.51%14.36%
Dividend Yield--0.00%3.78%2.87%1.71%1.79%2.37%3.12%1.48%2.10%3.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,611.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)460.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,151.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)922.36576.47345.88
Cash Retained (M)4,151.154,151.154,151.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-922.36-576.47-345.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,228.803,574.683,805.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,148.261,148.261,148.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.813.113.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.813.113.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.213.513.72
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.47%6.47%7.47%
Fair Value$317.96$748.35$798.54
Upside / Downside1,456.32%3,562.99%3,808.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,611.794,910.275,228.065,566.425,926.686,310.256,499.56
Payout Ratio9.99%25.99%41.99%58.00%74.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)460.641,276.212,195.423,228.264,385.605,679.236,012.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.47%6.47%7.47%
Year 1 PV (M)1,186.641,197.891,209.14
Year 2 PV (M)1,898.071,934.241,970.74
Year 3 PV (M)2,595.152,669.672,745.60
Year 4 PV (M)3,278.093,404.193,533.89
Year 5 PV (M)3,947.114,137.804,335.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)118,107.53123,813.72129,738.34
Equity Value (M)131,012.60137,157.51143,533.53
Shares Outstanding (M)1,148.261,148.261,148.26
Fair Value$114.10$119.45$125.00
Upside / Downside458.48%484.67%511.85%

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