Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding Corp. (0322.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.34 - $42.29$24.80
Multi-Stage$19.90 - $21.84$20.85
Blended Fair Value$22.83
Current Price$10.49
Upside117.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.64%9.42%0.550.230.360.360.300.440.160.110.150.23
YoY Growth--136.83%-35.83%0.99%21.95%-32.98%167.68%55.11%-29.69%-34.46%2.47%
Dividend Yield--4.54%2.91%3.18%3.37%2.46%3.81%1.54%0.82%1.75%3.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,120.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,558.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,561.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)824.05515.03309.02
Cash Retained (M)2,561.692,561.692,561.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-824.05-515.03-309.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,737.642,046.662,252.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,636.275,636.275,636.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.360.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.360.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.640.68
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate2.64%3.64%4.64%
Fair Value$16.34$24.80$42.29
Upside / Downside55.78%136.41%303.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,120.244,270.084,425.374,586.314,753.104,925.965,073.74
Payout Ratio37.83%48.26%58.70%69.13%79.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,558.552,060.802,597.523,170.553,781.824,433.374,693.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate2.64%3.64%4.64%
Year 1 PV (M)1,919.781,938.481,957.19
Year 2 PV (M)2,254.192,298.322,342.89
Year 3 PV (M)2,563.192,638.852,715.97
Year 4 PV (M)2,848.162,960.793,076.73
Year 5 PV (M)3,110.373,264.873,425.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)99,481.58104,423.24109,559.35
Equity Value (M)112,177.26117,524.55123,077.59
Shares Outstanding (M)5,636.275,636.275,636.27
Fair Value$19.90$20.85$21.84
Upside / Downside89.73%98.77%108.17%

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