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Definitive Analysis

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Michang Oil Ind .Co.,Ltd. (003650.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,084,864.40 - $6,147,589.86$1,983,471.58
Multi-Stage$891,235.04 - $977,707.99$933,661.81
Blended Fair Value$1,458,566.69
Current Price$106,500.00
Upside1,269.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.80%2.61%2,799.962,499.972,499.972,099.972,024.761,676.891,864.422,506.042,392.132,050.40
YoY Growth--12.00%0.00%19.05%3.71%20.75%-10.06%-25.60%4.76%16.67%-5.26%
Dividend Yield--2.80%3.19%3.79%2.57%2.72%3.35%2.37%3.07%2.80%2.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)49,847.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,538.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)45,308.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,969.446,230.903,738.54
Cash Retained (M)45,308.2845,308.2845,308.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,969.44-6,230.90-3,738.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)35,338.8439,077.3841,569.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.511.511.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share23,356.8025,827.7427,475.04
LTM Dividend per Share2,999.962,999.962,999.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share23,356.8025,827.7427,475.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend26,356.7628,827.7030,475.00
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate3.94%4.94%5.94%
Fair Value$1,084,864.40$1,983,471.58$6,147,589.86
Upside / Downside918.65%1,762.41%5,672.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)49,847.2252,308.3454,890.9957,601.1460,445.1163,429.4965,332.38
Payout Ratio9.11%25.28%41.46%57.64%73.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,538.9413,225.9322,759.6833,202.6144,621.2757,086.5460,432.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate3.94%4.94%5.94%
Year 1 PV (M)12,304.7112,423.0912,541.48
Year 2 PV (M)19,699.5320,080.4220,464.96
Year 3 PV (M)26,736.6527,515.8128,309.96
Year 4 PV (M)33,428.8534,734.0436,077.08
Year 5 PV (M)39,788.5641,739.8143,766.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,216,480.311,276,137.151,338,111.84
Equity Value (M)1,348,438.611,412,630.321,479,272.19
Shares Outstanding (M)1.511.511.51
Fair Value$891,235.04$933,661.81$977,707.99
Upside / Downside736.84%776.68%818.04%

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