Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Suzhou Huaya Intelligence Technology Co., Ltd. (003043.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.67 - $69.94$30.08
Multi-Stage$27.01 - $29.68$28.32
Blended Fair Value$29.20
Current Price$51.53
Upside-43.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.20%0.00%0.210.310.230.000.170.170.230.010.480.01
YoY Growth---30.90%33.33%40,131.73%-99.67%0.00%-25.00%2,620.83%-98.24%4,161.48%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.63%1.10%0.53%0.00%0.85%0.85%1.14%0.04%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)63.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.737.964.77
Cash Retained (M)33.0233.0233.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.73-7.96-4.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.2925.0728.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)103.35103.35103.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate5.05%5.05%5.05%
Growth Rate2.20%3.20%4.20%
Fair Value$17.67$30.08$69.94
Upside / Downside-65.70%-41.63%35.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)63.6465.6867.7869.9572.1974.5076.74
Payout Ratio48.11%56.49%64.87%73.25%81.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.6237.1043.9751.2458.9267.0570.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.05%5.05%5.05%
Growth Rate2.20%3.20%4.20%
Year 1 PV (M)34.9835.3235.66
Year 2 PV (M)39.0739.8440.62
Year 3 PV (M)42.9244.2045.49
Year 4 PV (M)46.5448.3850.29
Year 5 PV (M)49.9252.4155.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,577.552,706.152,839.82
Equity Value (M)2,790.992,926.303,066.88
Shares Outstanding (M)103.35103.35103.35
Fair Value$27.01$28.32$29.68
Upside / Downside-47.59%-45.05%-42.41%

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