Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanxi Huhua Group Co., Ltd. (003002.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.68 - $183.91$65.43
Multi-Stage$19.01 - $20.80$19.89
Blended Fair Value$42.66
Current Price$25.41
Upside67.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.09%-3.30%0.250.150.160.410.060.060.060.020.040.05
YoY Growth--65.89%-2.03%-62.05%577.02%0.00%0.00%248.29%-52.39%-27.36%-85.78%
Dividend Yield--1.08%1.15%0.78%3.15%0.39%0.51%0.51%0.15%0.31%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)181.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)151.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.4022.7513.65
Cash Retained (M)151.52151.52151.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.40-22.75-13.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)115.12128.77137.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)196.80196.80196.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.580.650.70
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.580.650.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.86
WACC / Discount Rate7.82%7.82%7.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$33.68$65.43$183.91
Upside / Downside32.56%157.49%623.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)181.99193.82206.42219.84234.13249.35256.83
Payout Ratio16.74%31.40%46.05%60.70%75.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.4760.8595.05133.44176.41224.41237.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.82%7.82%7.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)55.9156.4456.97
Year 2 PV (M)80.2481.7783.31
Year 3 PV (M)103.50106.47109.49
Year 4 PV (M)125.72130.55135.52
Year 5 PV (M)146.93154.03161.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,229.013,384.983,546.91
Equity Value (M)3,741.313,914.234,093.60
Shares Outstanding (M)196.80196.80196.80
Fair Value$19.01$19.89$20.80
Upside / Downside-25.18%-21.73%-18.14%

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