Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SMS Electric Co.,Ltd.Zhengzhou (002857.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.83 - $1.30$1.05
Multi-Stage$0.99 - $1.09$1.04
Blended Fair Value$1.04
Current Price$23.35
Upside-95.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.86%-2.93%0.040.000.000.000.100.040.040.120.070.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%150.00%6.67%-70.00%77.78%11,131.66%-98.72%
Dividend Yield--0.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.82%0.37%0.24%0.99%0.43%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.151.350.81
Cash Retained (M)8.498.498.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.15-1.35-0.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.337.147.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)128.83128.83128.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate1.66%2.66%3.66%
Fair Value$0.83$1.05$1.30
Upside / Downside-96.44%-95.52%-94.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10.7711.0611.3611.6611.9712.2912.66
Payout Ratio21.21%34.97%48.73%62.48%76.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.293.875.537.289.1311.0611.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate1.66%2.66%3.66%
Year 1 PV (M)3.493.523.56
Year 2 PV (M)4.504.594.68
Year 3 PV (M)5.345.505.66
Year 4 PV (M)6.036.276.52
Year 5 PV (M)6.596.927.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)101.96107.08112.39
Equity Value (M)127.90133.87140.06
Shares Outstanding (M)128.83128.83128.83
Fair Value$0.99$1.04$1.09
Upside / Downside-95.75%-95.55%-95.34%

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