Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co., Ltd. (002850.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$431.84 - $1,195.73$1,120.58
Multi-Stage$167.00 - $182.78$174.74
Blended Fair Value$647.66
Current Price$195.70
Upside230.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS58.83%36.15%1.560.400.350.240.200.150.180.260.080.03
YoY Growth--292.06%12.18%48.29%18.62%30.65%-13.38%-30.73%233.33%199.79%-63.89%
Dividend Yield--1.28%0.44%0.27%0.16%0.31%0.37%0.71%0.72%0.11%0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,639.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)548.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,091.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)327.98204.99122.99
Cash Retained (M)1,091.071,091.071,091.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-327.98-204.99-122.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)763.09886.08968.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)272.75272.75272.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.803.253.55
LTM Dividend per Share2.012.012.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.803.253.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.815.265.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$431.84$1,120.58$1,195.73
Upside / Downside120.66%472.60%511.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,639.891,746.491,860.011,980.912,109.672,246.802,314.20
Payout Ratio33.47%44.77%56.08%67.39%78.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)548.83781.971,043.101,334.871,660.172,022.122,140.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)726.15733.04739.92
Year 2 PV (M)899.51916.64933.94
Year 3 PV (M)1,068.951,099.641,130.91
Year 4 PV (M)1,234.561,282.041,330.87
Year 5 PV (M)1,396.381,463.831,533.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,222.8842,165.6644,182.79
Equity Value (M)45,548.4447,660.8449,852.28
Shares Outstanding (M)272.75272.75272.75
Fair Value$167.00$174.74$182.78
Upside / Downside-14.67%-10.71%-6.60%

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