Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Innover Technology Co., Ltd. (002767.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.58 - $9.52$6.45
Multi-Stage$3.37 - $3.69$3.53
Blended Fair Value$4.99
Current Price$19.08
Upside-73.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.36%-22.81%0.020.000.030.030.040.030.060.080.070.32
YoY Growth--11,268.32%-99.48%-3.57%-20.00%12.90%-44.64%-30.00%20.00%-79.15%49.90%
Dividend Yield--0.10%0.00%0.20%0.26%0.35%0.27%0.34%0.44%0.17%1.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)37.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.514.692.81
Cash Retained (M)37.3337.3337.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.51-4.69-2.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.8232.6434.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)149.66149.66149.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.220.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.220.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate5.30%6.30%7.30%
Fair Value$4.58$6.45$9.52
Upside / Downside-76.01%-66.18%-50.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37.5339.9042.4145.0847.9250.9452.47
Payout Ratio0.54%18.43%36.32%54.21%72.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.207.3515.4024.4434.5645.8548.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate5.30%6.30%7.30%
Year 1 PV (M)6.636.696.75
Year 2 PV (M)12.5112.7512.99
Year 3 PV (M)17.8918.4118.93
Year 4 PV (M)22.8023.6724.58
Year 5 PV (M)27.2628.5829.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)417.28437.48458.44
Equity Value (M)504.37527.57551.64
Shares Outstanding (M)149.66149.66149.66
Fair Value$3.37$3.53$3.69
Upside / Downside-82.34%-81.52%-80.68%

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