Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co., Ltd (002705.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$231.19 - $272.38$255.26
Multi-Stage$87.19 - $95.66$91.35
Blended Fair Value$173.31
Current Price$15.72
Upside1,002.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.13%13.98%0.400.410.200.610.400.350.300.270.160.14
YoY Growth---0.59%101.88%-67.13%54.73%14.29%14.95%11.43%65.16%20.00%25.00%
Dividend Yield--2.50%2.33%1.18%3.67%1.13%1.86%2.14%2.29%1.09%1.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,108.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)132.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)976.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)221.77138.6083.16
Cash Retained (M)976.33976.33976.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-221.77-138.60-83.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)754.56837.72893.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)809.58809.58809.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.931.031.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.931.031.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.101.201.27
WACC / Discount Rate4.64%4.64%4.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$231.19$255.26$272.38
Upside / Downside1,370.69%1,523.82%1,632.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,108.831,180.901,257.661,339.411,426.471,519.191,564.77
Payout Ratio11.95%27.56%43.17%58.78%74.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)132.50325.45542.93787.301,061.151,367.271,447.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.64%4.64%4.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)308.11311.03313.95
Year 2 PV (M)486.61495.87505.23
Year 3 PV (M)668.03687.20706.74
Year 4 PV (M)852.40885.19918.90
Year 5 PV (M)1,039.781,090.001,142.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)67,236.7570,484.3173,856.16
Equity Value (M)70,591.6773,953.6077,443.13
Shares Outstanding (M)809.58809.58809.58
Fair Value$87.19$91.35$95.66
Upside / Downside454.68%481.09%508.51%

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