Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Yantai Dongcheng Pharmaceutical Group Co.,Ltd. (002675.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.70 - $2.57$2.11
Multi-Stage$4.30 - $4.73$4.51
Blended Fair Value$3.31
Current Price$15.20
Upside-78.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.50%23.99%0.260.310.300.370.420.300.160.100.060.04
YoY Growth---15.90%2.82%-16.94%-12.98%41.00%85.61%57.40%67.23%44.77%37.76%
Dividend Yield--2.00%2.26%1.87%2.85%2.21%2.21%1.26%0.89%0.43%0.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)166.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)132.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.2120.7612.46
Cash Retained (M)33.4033.4033.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.21-20.76-12.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.1912.6520.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)824.54824.54824.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.84%-1.84%-0.84%
Fair Value$1.70$2.11$2.57
Upside / Downside-88.80%-86.11%-83.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)166.07163.02160.01157.07154.17151.33155.87
Payout Ratio79.89%81.91%83.93%85.95%87.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)132.67133.52134.30135.01135.64136.20144.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.84%-1.84%-0.84%
Year 1 PV (M)124.27125.55126.82
Year 2 PV (M)116.32118.73121.16
Year 3 PV (M)108.83112.22115.69
Year 4 PV (M)101.76106.01110.40
Year 5 PV (M)95.10100.09105.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,000.763,158.393,322.59
Equity Value (M)3,547.033,720.993,901.95
Shares Outstanding (M)824.54824.54824.54
Fair Value$4.30$4.51$4.73
Upside / Downside-71.70%-70.31%-68.87%

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