Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xingye Leather Technology Co., Ltd. (002674.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$66.18 - $77.98$73.08
Multi-Stage$43.76 - $48.02$45.85
Blended Fair Value$59.46
Current Price$9.99
Upside495.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.15%10.62%0.700.600.370.080.660.660.530.170.040.20
YoY Growth--17.03%60.78%372.07%-88.09%0.12%24.99%213.77%291.54%-78.09%-22.96%
Dividend Yield--7.36%5.27%3.34%0.77%5.54%7.12%3.52%1.61%0.27%1.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)115.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)74.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.1514.478.68
Cash Retained (M)74.5174.5174.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.15-14.47-8.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.3660.0465.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)295.20295.20295.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate2.91%2.91%2.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$66.18$73.08$77.98
Upside / Downside562.51%631.49%680.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)115.75123.27131.28139.82148.90158.58163.34
Payout Ratio35.63%46.50%57.38%68.25%79.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.2457.3275.3295.43117.82142.72151.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.91%2.91%2.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)55.1855.7056.23
Year 2 PV (M)69.8071.1372.47
Year 3 PV (M)85.1287.5790.06
Year 4 PV (M)101.18105.07109.07
Year 5 PV (M)117.98123.68129.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,489.7813,093.0413,719.39
Equity Value (M)12,919.0513,536.2014,176.82
Shares Outstanding (M)295.20295.20295.20
Fair Value$43.76$45.85$48.02
Upside / Downside338.07%359.00%380.72%

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