Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangsu Jiuding New Material Co., Ltd. (002201.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.42 - $2.38$1.84
Multi-Stage$3.17 - $3.49$3.33
Blended Fair Value$2.58
Current Price$7.93
Upside-67.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.20%-5.04%0.060.050.060.010.010.050.060.060.080.09
YoY Growth--6.58%-14.82%983.63%-26.67%-85.29%-13.16%-5.38%-19.27%-13.13%-2.48%
Dividend Yield--1.03%0.86%0.56%0.05%0.13%0.74%1.45%1.28%1.09%1.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)78.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.629.765.86
Cash Retained (M)48.2048.2048.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.62-9.76-5.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)32.5838.4442.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)651.94651.94651.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate5.90%5.90%5.90%
Growth Rate-0.80%0.20%1.20%
Fair Value$1.42$1.84$2.38
Upside / Downside-82.12%-76.79%-69.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)78.1078.2678.4178.5678.7278.8781.24
Payout Ratio38.29%48.63%58.97%69.32%79.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.9038.0646.2454.4662.7070.9875.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.90%5.90%5.90%
Growth Rate-0.80%0.20%1.20%
Year 1 PV (M)35.5835.9436.29
Year 2 PV (M)40.4141.2342.06
Year 3 PV (M)44.4945.8547.24
Year 4 PV (M)47.8949.8551.87
Year 5 PV (M)50.6853.2956.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,849.001,944.102,043.07
Equity Value (M)2,068.062,170.262,276.54
Shares Outstanding (M)651.94651.94651.94
Fair Value$3.17$3.33$3.49
Upside / Downside-60.00%-58.02%-55.97%

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