Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Truchum Advanced Materials and Technology Co., Ltd. (002171.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.66 - $74.22$50.56
Multi-Stage$9.10 - $9.95$9.52
Blended Fair Value$30.04
Current Price$9.67
Upside210.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS45.86%25.90%0.310.220.290.160.140.050.100.090.020.04
YoY Growth--37.70%-24.40%83.59%17.13%194.91%-52.86%15.22%316.85%-44.60%20.85%
Dividend Yield--3.50%2.71%3.94%1.72%1.93%0.62%1.44%1.26%0.26%0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)568.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)242.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)326.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)113.7671.1042.66
Cash Retained (M)326.62326.62326.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-113.76-71.10-42.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)212.86255.52283.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,524.141,524.141,524.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate7.19%7.19%7.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18.66$50.56$74.22
Upside / Downside92.99%422.88%667.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)568.80605.78645.15687.09731.75779.31802.69
Payout Ratio42.58%52.06%61.55%71.03%80.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)242.18315.38397.07488.04589.17701.38742.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.19%7.19%7.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)291.47294.23296.99
Year 2 PV (M)339.14345.60352.12
Year 3 PV (M)385.24396.30407.57
Year 4 PV (M)429.80446.33463.33
Year 5 PV (M)472.87495.71519.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,953.3512,530.7013,130.15
Equity Value (M)13,871.8714,508.8715,169.59
Shares Outstanding (M)1,524.141,524.141,524.14
Fair Value$9.10$9.52$9.95
Upside / Downside-5.88%-1.56%2.93%

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