Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hongda High-Tech Holding Co.,Ltd. (002144.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.55 - $6.25$3.80
Multi-Stage$10.13 - $11.17$10.64
Blended Fair Value$7.22
Current Price$12.54
Upside-42.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.95%-2.62%0.160.110.100.100.100.100.150.150.150.20
YoY Growth--46.23%6.33%0.00%-1.91%0.66%-33.27%-0.95%3.13%-26.14%-0.81%
Dividend Yield--1.38%1.10%0.88%0.95%1.13%1.12%1.23%1.16%0.71%0.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)12.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.362.731.64
Cash Retained (M)12.9312.9312.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.36-2.73-1.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.5710.2111.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)176.23176.23176.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.11
WACC / Discount Rate3.12%3.12%3.12%
Growth Rate-0.73%0.27%1.27%
Fair Value$2.55$3.80$6.25
Upside / Downside-79.67%-69.67%-50.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21.8021.8621.9221.9822.0422.1022.76
Payout Ratio40.68%50.54%60.41%70.27%80.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.8711.0513.2415.4417.6619.8921.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate3.12%3.12%3.12%
Growth Rate-0.73%0.27%1.27%
Year 1 PV (M)10.6110.7110.82
Year 2 PV (M)12.2012.4512.70
Year 3 PV (M)13.6714.0814.51
Year 4 PV (M)15.0015.6216.25
Year 5 PV (M)16.2217.0517.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,716.991,805.231,897.07
Equity Value (M)1,784.691,875.151,969.27
Shares Outstanding (M)176.23176.23176.23
Fair Value$10.13$10.64$11.17
Upside / Downside-19.24%-15.15%-10.89%

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