Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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DHC Software Co.,Ltd. (002065.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.68 - $22.34$10.19
Multi-Stage$2.54 - $2.78$2.66
Blended Fair Value$6.43
Current Price$10.78
Upside-40.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.57%12.62%0.100.090.090.080.110.100.100.050.070.06
YoY Growth--12.70%-5.55%15.77%-29.24%17.99%-3.17%87.68%-24.77%26.19%84.93%
Dividend Yield--0.96%1.55%1.13%1.14%1.54%0.75%1.07%0.64%0.67%0.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)360.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)184.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)176.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)72.0645.0427.02
Cash Retained (M)176.24176.24176.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-72.06-45.04-27.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)104.17131.20149.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,206.963,206.963,206.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.10
WACC / Discount Rate7.53%7.53%7.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.68$10.19$22.34
Upside / Downside-56.61%-5.46%107.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)360.31383.73408.67435.23463.52493.65508.46
Payout Ratio51.09%58.87%66.65%74.44%82.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)184.07225.90272.39323.97381.10444.29470.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.53%7.53%7.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)208.11210.09212.06
Year 2 PV (M)231.18235.59240.03
Year 3 PV (M)253.31260.58267.99
Year 4 PV (M)274.52285.08295.93
Year 5 PV (M)294.84309.08323.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,894.117,227.107,572.83
Equity Value (M)8,156.088,527.518,912.72
Shares Outstanding (M)3,206.963,206.963,206.96
Fair Value$2.54$2.66$2.78
Upside / Downside-76.41%-75.33%-74.22%

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