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Definitive Analysis

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Qingdao Foods CO.,LTD. (001219.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.36 - $10.72$8.27
Multi-Stage$12.72 - $13.99$13.34
Blended Fair Value$10.81
Current Price$13.81
Upside-21.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.02%0.00%0.230.170.140.170.160.190.100.050.060.15
YoY Growth--29.21%28.14%-18.22%2.15%-16.10%103.35%87.13%-8.35%-62.68%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.75%1.37%1.02%1.44%1.45%1.73%0.85%0.45%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)103.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)57.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)46.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.7312.967.77
Cash Retained (M)46.3846.3846.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.73-12.96-7.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)25.6533.4338.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)194.98194.98194.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.170.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.170.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.49
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-0.35%0.65%1.65%
Fair Value$6.36$8.27$10.72
Upside / Downside-53.94%-40.12%-22.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)103.65104.32104.99105.68106.36107.05110.26
Payout Ratio55.25%62.20%69.15%76.10%83.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)57.2664.8972.6080.4288.3396.35101.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-0.35%0.65%1.65%
Year 1 PV (M)60.4361.0361.64
Year 2 PV (M)62.9764.2465.52
Year 3 PV (M)64.9666.9368.95
Year 4 PV (M)66.4569.1671.95
Year 5 PV (M)67.5070.9574.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,158.812,269.332,384.32
Equity Value (M)2,481.112,601.642,726.93
Shares Outstanding (M)194.98194.98194.98
Fair Value$12.72$13.34$13.99
Upside / Downside-7.86%-3.38%1.27%

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