Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co., Ltd. (001215.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.47 - $25.58$16.57
Multi-Stage$8.09 - $8.84$8.46
Blended Fair Value$12.52
Current Price$40.22
Upside-68.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS86.80%0.00%0.230.240.200.070.000.010.000.060.000.00
YoY Growth---3.90%17.08%194.69%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.82%0.49%0.27%0.17%0.00%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)55.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)53.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.186.994.19
Cash Retained (M)53.2953.2953.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.18-6.99-4.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.1146.3149.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)97.0697.0697.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.480.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.480.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.500.53
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.47$16.57$25.58
Upside / Downside-71.48%-58.79%-36.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)55.9159.5563.4267.5471.9376.6178.90
Payout Ratio4.68%21.75%38.81%55.87%72.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.6212.9524.6137.7452.4668.9572.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)11.6911.8011.91
Year 2 PV (M)20.0620.4420.82
Year 3 PV (M)27.7628.5629.37
Year 4 PV (M)34.8436.1837.55
Year 5 PV (M)41.3343.3245.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)649.17680.53713.08
Equity Value (M)784.84820.82858.13
Shares Outstanding (M)97.0697.0697.06
Fair Value$8.09$8.46$8.84
Upside / Downside-79.89%-78.97%-78.02%

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