Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhongtong Bus Holding Co., Ltd. (000957.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.38 - $3.17$2.79
Multi-Stage$3.20 - $3.52$3.35
Blended Fair Value$3.07
Current Price$10.99
Upside-72.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-31.06%-4.25%0.050.050.090.130.240.310.560.120.400.16
YoY Growth---6.00%-41.94%-30.83%-45.51%-24.29%-43.96%382.91%-71.05%149.71%112.54%
Dividend Yield--0.43%0.60%0.83%2.64%3.73%4.32%7.11%1.23%2.52%1.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)330.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)312.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.2041.3724.82
Cash Retained (M)312.33312.33312.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.20-41.37-24.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)246.13270.96287.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)589.67589.67589.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.460.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.460.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate12.69%12.69%12.69%
Growth Rate-5.19%-4.19%-3.19%
Fair Value$2.38$2.79$3.17
Upside / Downside-78.32%-74.62%-71.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)330.98317.13303.86291.14278.95267.28275.30
Payout Ratio5.64%22.51%39.38%56.25%73.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.6571.38119.66163.78203.99240.55254.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.69%12.69%12.69%
Growth Rate-5.19%-4.19%-3.19%
Year 1 PV (M)62.6863.3464.01
Year 2 PV (M)92.2894.2496.21
Year 3 PV (M)110.91114.46118.08
Year 4 PV (M)121.31126.51131.87
Year 5 PV (M)125.62132.39139.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,372.931,446.881,523.97
Equity Value (M)1,885.741,977.812,073.59
Shares Outstanding (M)589.67589.67589.67
Fair Value$3.20$3.35$3.52
Upside / Downside-70.90%-69.48%-68.00%

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